Tropopause Polar Vortex and the Late March Cool-Down Tomer Burg | 28 March 2022 | Analysis
While glancing at the forecast for the upcoming stretch of anomalous cold weather in the Northeast U.S., I noticed that while low-level temperatures are forecast to be near record cold for this time of year, upper-level temperatures are actually forecast to be near record warmth!
This may seem counter-intuitive at a first glance, but it ended up being related to a Tropopause Polar Vortex (TPV) forecast to move directly over the Northeast. A further look into this TPV showed a surprisingly interesting forecast uncertainty case where the TPV resulted in colder temperatures than previously forecast.
Bomb Cyclones: The Forgotten Latitude Weighting Tomer Burg | 27 March 2022 | Analysis
Over the last few years, the term "bomb cyclone" or "bombogenesis" has become increasingly popularized within and beyond the weather community. A bomb cyclone is commonly defined as a decrease in central minimum pressure of 24 hPa or more within 24 hours. This definition, however, is incomplete.
The original definition of a "bomb cyclone" from Sanders and Gyakum (1980) included a latitude weighting factor, such that the threshold for a bomb cyclone increases the further north you go. This post reviews how this latitude weighting affects bomb cyclone criteria, as well as how this definition can be optimized in future work.
