2024 Eclipse Forecasts

April 8, 2024 Total Solar Eclipse

A total solar eclipse is coming up for parts of Mexico, Canada, and the United States on the afternoon of 8 April 2024. This page aggregates the latest data from various weather models and ensembles for cloud cover and precipitation forecasts for the time of the eclipse. Click on any of the pages below to view the latest data!

NOTE: For all cloud cover plots on this page, blue = clear skies and gray = clouds.

High Resolution Ensemble Forecast

The High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) is a short-range, high-resolution ensemble combining NOAA's operational short-range models.

National Blend of Models

The National Blend of Models (NBM) provides a high-quality, high-resolution forecast by combining and bias correcting many models and ensembles.

City Dashboard

View a detailed breakdown of the ensemble spread for various cities along the totality path.

High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF)

The HREF combines various high-resolution simulations, most of which are run twice a day, and applies time lagging to construct an ensemble. The HREF is a short-range ensemble, and is only available within 48 hour forecast lead time.

Analysis: Comparing HREF against visible satellite observations over the last few days, the HREF appears to exaggerate high-level cloud cover. Even in places where high-level clouds do occur, they are very often still thin enough to view the sun through. The exception to this might be where HREF shows 100% high-level cloud cover.

Ensemble mean cloud cover

Average cloud cover across all available ensemble members

Ensemble mean cloud layers

The eclipse might still be visible through high-level clouds

Deterministic Model Forecasts

This section compares different determinisic model forecasts for cloud cover & fraction of clear sky downward shortwave radiation. Keep in mind each model has different biases and will show a different result, and forecasts should not be based strictly from a single model.

For all of these plots, blue = clear skies, gray = cloudy skies.

Cloud cover

Radiation fraction

National Blend of Models (NBM)

The NBM is run out to extended forecast ranges 4 times a day, aggregating and applying downscaling and bias corrections to a large set of deterministic and ensemble models. Ensemble mean products are currently available from the NBM, but cloud cover probabilities are not available.

Ensemble mean cloud cover

Average cloud cover across all member inputs

Ensemble mean precipitation

Average 1-hour precipitation across all member inputs

Analysis: Comparing HREF against visible satellite observations over the last few days, the HREF appears to exaggerate high-level cloud cover. Even in places where high-level clouds do occur, they are very often still thin enough to view the sun through. The exception to this might be where HREF shows 100% high-level cloud cover.