Steven M. Cavallo

 

Real-time animations






Tropopause maps: Past 10 days - 10 day forecast

Dynamic tropopause (2 PVU surface) plots from 0.5 degree GFS analyses over the past 10 days, and 0.5 degree GFS forecasts over the next 10 days. Magenta `+' symbols denote locations of upper-air observations at any time since 1 January 2014.
Tropopause Field
Northern Hemis. Arctic zoom Southern Hemis.
Potential temperature
Colors with 1 K interval, sea level pressure with contour interval of 4 hPa up to 996 hPa (1004 hPa) in Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere)
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Potential temperature anomalies
Standardized anomalies (colors, interval of 0.5 standard deviations) and sea level pressure (contours, 4 hPa interval up to 996 hPa). Anomalies are with respect to 1981-2010 climatological mean.
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Potential temperature ensemble forecast
GEFS ensemble spread in tropopause potential temperature (colors, 0.1 K interval) and tropopause potential temperature of control (contours, 5 K interval) from latest 00/12 UTC forecast.
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Sea ice, sea level pressure, 1000 hPa wind
Near-real-time DMSP SSM/I-SSMIS daily polar gridded sea ice concentration (colors, fraction between 0 and 1), GFS sea level pressure (gray contours, 4 hPa interval) and GFS 1000 hPa wind speed (red contours, 5 m s-1 interval)
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Pressure
Colors, 10 hPa interval
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Jet stream
Wind magnitude (colors, 1 m s-1 interval)
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Related diagnostics. Past 7 days - 7 day forecast

Plots from 0.5 degree GFS analyses over the past 7 days, and 0.5 degree GFS forecasts over the next 7 days.
1000-500 hPa thickness, 500 hPa absolute vorticity
Absolute vertical vorticity (color interval of 1 x 10-5 s-1), 1000-500 hPa thickness (contour interval 60 m)
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Hovmoller
Meridional wind on tropopause, averaged from 30-60 degrees N latitude for Northern Hemisphere option, 60-90 degrees N latitude for Arctic zoom option, and 30-60 degrees S latitude for Southern Hemisphere option.
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Forecast evaluation (GFS, 0.5 degree)

Forecast minus analysis differences with respect to latest analysis.
d[Potential temperature forecast]/dt
0-7 day forecast trends valid at analysis time and various forecast times. Colors with 1 K interval, sea level pressure with contour interval of 4 hPa up to 996 hPa (1004 hPa) in Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere)
V/0h
V/24h
V/48h
V/72h
V/96h
V/120h
V/144h
V/168h
V/0h
V/24h
V/48h
V/72h
V/96h
V/120h
V/144h
V/168h
Tropopause Potential temperature forecast trends
1-7 day forecast minus analysis (V000) or 2-7 day forecast minus most recent forecasts (V024, V048, V072). Colors are differences with interval of 1 K, contours are tropopause potential temperature at verification time with interval of 5 K.
V/0h
V/24h
V/48h
V/72h
Sea level pressure forecast trends
1-7 day forecast minus analysis (V000) or 2-7 day forecast minus most recent forecasts (V024, V048, V072). Colors are differences with interval of 1 hPa, contours are sea level pressure at verification time with interval of 4 hPa.
V/0h
V/24h
V/48h
V/72h
Hovmoller 5-day forecast differences
Meridional wind on tropopause, averaged from 30-60 degrees N latitude for Northern Hemisphere option, 60-90 degrees N latitude for Arctic zoom option, and 30-60 degrees S latitude for Southern Hemisphere option. [Colors] (Contours) through latest analysis time are [5-day forecast minus analysis differences] (analysis field) . [Colors] (contours) after analysis time are [5-day forecast trends ] (most recent forecast field)). Forecast drift is the 5-day forecast minus the latest forecast valid at the time on the y-axis.
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Related Links

Useful weather links
Greg Hakim's tropopause maps over the past week
ECMWF Arctic vortex and tropopause maps (Andreas Dornbrack)
Free University of Berlin Institute of Meteorology
Visualization of tropopause maps





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