Tomer Burg
Ph.D. Student | School of Meteorology

Enter the input parameters into the fields below to get simulated probabilities.
All radar-based entries are intended to be derived from lowest-elevation (0.5 degrees) WSR-88D base data.

ARL:

Height of simulated circulation above ground level (ft)
Max Inbound:

Maximum inbound velocity (kt)
Max Outbound:

Maximum outbound velocity (kt)
Dist:

Circulation diameter - distance between max inbound and max outbound (n mi)
STP:

CT:

0 = diffuse circulation
1 = clear circulation
TDS:

0 = no TDS
1 = yes TDS
** ONLY enter 1 if you are confident there is a TDS **

Optional comment to include in archive. 20 characters max.

What are the plots?
The plot on the left is derived from Figure 1 of Cohen et al. (2018), and the plot on the right is derived from Figure 2 of Cohen et al. (2018).

Left figure...
Box-and-whisker plots corresponding to the tornado probabilities simulated from an independent dataset of tornadic (left, n=498) and an independent dataset of nontornadic (right, n=499) events. Boxes correspond to interquartile ranges (25th–75th percentiles) with the embedded horizontal line markers indicating the medians (50th percentiles) of the distributions, and whiskers extending to the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distributions. The computed tornado probability for the entered data is plotted as a color-coded horizontal bar on the box-and-whiskers plots.

Right figure...
Box-and-whisker plots corresponding to tornado wind speeds simulated from an independent dataset of 498 tornado events. Boxes correspond to interquartile ranges (25th–75th percentiles) with the embedded horizontal line marks indicating the medians (50th percentiles) of the distributions, and whiskers extend to the 10th and 90th percentiles of the distributions. The computed tornado wind speed for the entered data is plotted as a color-coded horizontal bar on the box-and-whiskers plots.

What do I enter in the text boxes above?
Use the text boxes to enter appropriate values determined by radar assessment. For the STP entry, use the SPC Mesoanalysis to determine the STP value closest to the location of interest.

How is the output computed?
The tornado probability and tornado wind speed are computed using regression equations provided in Cohen et al. (2018).